https://twoweeks.lol/ Status changes, goalpost moves, new predictions and resolved promises from the Elon Musk prediction tracker. en-us https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-flight-a-day-within-year/2026-08-06-starship-flight-a-day-within-yearThu, 06 Aug 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: on SpaceX's first earnings call (Aug 4 2026) Musk said Starship would be doing at least one flight a day within about a year.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-1-trillion-revenue-2030/2026-08-06-spacex-1-trillion-revenue-2030Thu, 06 Aug 2026 08:00:00 GMTReaffirmed on SpaceX's first earnings call (Aug 4 2026): the internal $1T-revenue target moved up from 2031 to 2030, with a non-zero chance of 2029.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-3-unveil-few-months/2026-08-01-optimus-3-unveil-few-monthsSat, 01 Aug 2026 08:00:00 GMTGraded MISSED — the July 31 2026 deadline passed with no V3/Gen 3 reveal; Tesla still withholding the robot until production start.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai-exceed-sum-human-intelligence/2026-08-01-ai-exceed-sum-human-intelligenceSat, 01 Aug 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: in his July 23 2026 Economist interview Musk said AI may exceed the sum of all human intelligence in around five years.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/money-wont-matter-2036/2026-08-01-money-wont-matter-2036Sat, 01 Aug 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: in his July 23 2026 Economist interview Musk said money 'won't matter in 2036' as AI and robots make goods and services super-abundant.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-4-6-out-in-a-week/2026-07-30-grok-4-6-out-in-a-weekThu, 30 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: on July 30, 2026 Musk said Grok 4.6 'comes out in a week' and is 'a significant improvement' — a dated public-release promise targeting ~Aug 6, 2026.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai-robot-singularity-ten-years/2026-07-27-ai-robot-singularity-ten-yearsMon, 27 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTFixed source: the full Economist interview was pulled from YouTube to the outlet's premium platform, so the primary source now points to the verbatim interview transcript confirming 'the AI robot singularity is 10 years away.'https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-ship-tower-catch-next-flight/2026-07-25-spacex-ship-tower-catch-next-flightSat, 25 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: a day after Starship Flight 13, Musk said SpaceX will attempt to catch the Ship (the upper stage) with the launch tower on the next flight, barring problems found in the mission data review.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai-robot-singularity-ten-years/2026-07-25-ai-robot-singularity-ten-yearsSat, 25 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction from Musk's July 23 2026 Economist interview: AI and robots will dominate 'on a time scale that is less than 10 years' and 'the AI robot singularity is 10 years away' (by ~2036).https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/semi-self-driving-end-2026-early-2027/2026-07-24-semi-self-driving-end-2026-early-2027Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: on the Q2 2026 earnings call Musk said Tesla expects self-driving working on the Semi around the end of 2026 or early 2027, after Model 3/Y and Cybercab.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025/2026-07-24-unsupervised-fsd-texas-california-2025Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTRegraded missed to partial: driverless unsupervised Model Y robotaxis now run in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami and Orlando/Tampa, but they are Tesla-owned, California is not driverless, and customer-car unsupervised FSD is still unreleased.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-imagine-odyssey-movie-2026/2026-07-22-grok-imagine-odyssey-movie-2026Wed, 22 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction from Musk's July 22, 2026 tweet: before the year ends, xAI's Grok Imagine will make a full-length movie of Homer's Odyssey that is 'historically accurate and true to the art of Homer.'https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/tesla-ai5-chip-production-q2-2027/2026-07-15-tesla-ai5-chip-production-q2-2027Wed, 15 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction mined from Musk's Feb 5, 2026 Dwarkesh Podcast: Tesla's AI5 inference chip goes from design into production and scale around Q2 2027, with AI6 to follow less than a year later.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/space-most-compelling-place-for-ai-2028/2026-07-15-space-most-compelling-place-for-ai-2028Wed, 15 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction mined from Musk's Feb 5, 2026 Dwarkesh Podcast: 'mark my words,' within 30-36 months orbit becomes the most economically compelling place to run AI compute.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/model-y-variant-us-production-2026/2026-07-14-model-y-variant-us-production-2026Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTDelivered ahead of schedule: the first US-built six-seat Model Y L rolled off the line at Giga Texas (reported July 8, 2026), about five months before Musk's end-of-2026 target.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/working-optional-in-20-years/2026-07-14-working-optional-in-20-yearsTue, 14 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction added from Musk's Nov 30, 2025 'People by WTF' interview: work becomes optional, 'like a hobby,' in under 20 years.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/us-deflation-in-three-years/2026-07-14-us-deflation-in-three-yearsTue, 14 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction added from Musk's Nov 30, 2025 'People by WTF' interview: goods-and-services growth overtakes money-supply growth in about 3 years, followed by deflation and zero interest rates.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-4-5-public-release/2026-07-09-grok-4-5-public-releaseThu, 09 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTDelivered on schedule — Grok 4.5 went public July 9 across the xAI API, Grok Build and all Cursor tiers; graded delivered.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/first-people-moon-five-years/2026-07-09-first-people-moon-five-yearsThu, 09 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: on the Sean Hannity Show (Jul 8 2026) Musk said SpaceX will land its first people on the Moon in under 5 years and grow a city of thousands within a decade.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-4-5-public-release/2026-07-08-grok-4-5-public-releaseWed, 08 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTAdded: on July 8 2026 Musk said xAI would make Grok 4.5 — an 'Opus-class' model, faster and lower cost — available to the public the next day, July 9.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027/2026-07-07-gigawatt-space-ai-compute-2027Tue, 07 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTAdded (long-form backfill): in SpaceX's June 8, 2026 technical talk on manufacturing/launching AI satellites at scale, Musk said SpaceX aims to reach an annualized rate of ~1 GW/year of space-based AI compute by the end of 2027.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-v3-built-tested-2025/2026-07-03-starship-v3-built-tested-2025Fri, 03 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Missed → Delivered-late. V3 missed the end-2025 target but was built, tested and flown on Flight 12 (May 22, 2026) — reached space, deployed 22 Starlink simulators and splashed down as planned, ~5 months late.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-sold-to-public-2027/2026-07-03-optimus-sold-to-public-2027Fri, 03 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTAdded (long-form backfill): at Davos on Jan 22, 2026, in conversation with Larry Fink, Musk said Tesla expects to begin selling Optimus humanoid robots to the public by the end of 2027.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-cpp-stack-massive-gains/2026-07-02-grok-cpp-stack-massive-gainsThu, 02 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTAdded: on June 29 2026 Musk predicted 'truly massive gains' in ~3 months once xAI rewrites its entire training/inference stack in C/C++ and exact-maps Grok to Nvidia GB300 hardware (deadline ~end Sept 2026).https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/new-from-scratch-model-every-month-2026/2026-06-29-new-from-scratch-model-every-month-2026Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: on June 28 2026, announcing Grok 4.5's private beta, Musk said completely-from-scratch new models would be released every month for the rest of the year.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/x-money-launch/2026-06-27-x-money-launchSat, 27 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Partial → Delivered Late. X Money launched publicly on June 25, 2026 to select U.S. Premium+ subscribers (first broad consumer launch — live P2P payments, Visa card, $10M FDIC) — ~7 months after the Nov 2025 'soon' promise. The earlier 'partial' waited for full general availability; a real tiered public launch satisfies 'X Money comes out'.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/robotaxi-launch-austin/2026-06-27-robotaxi-launch-austinSat, 27 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTVerdict: Partial → Delivered Late. The Austin robotaxi launched on the predicted date (Jun 22 2025) but supervised; it went genuinely driverless (no in-car monitor) on Jan 22 2026 and metro-wide Jun 3 2026 — a real driverless service, just ~7 months late. The driverless milestone was confirmed by Tesla's AI lead + Musk; the old 'partial' had waited on the supervised-launch caveat.https://twoweeks.lol/2026-06-27-siteSat, 27 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTAudited every multi-deadline prediction's goalpost trail against Musk's own words (3 independent passes). Corrected: Roadster (dropped an interpolated 2021, added his 2028); Neuralink (2021->2022); Starship orbit (dropped unverified 2021); Starship reusability (added 2023); Semi volume (kept only his named volume years 2024/2026); FSD 'feature complete' (one-shot 2019, not 2020); X 'everything app' (cleared 2023-25 — those were exec/press, not Musk); Mars statements split accurately across the two cards.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starlink-spectrum-phones-2-years/2026-06-26-starlink-spectrum-phones-2-yearsFri, 26 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction added. At the All-In Summit (Sep 2025), Musk said phones able to use the 2 GHz spectrum SpaceX is buying from EchoStar would 'probably start shipping in around 2 years' — direct-to-cell, with matching satellites built in parallel. Deadline ~Sep 2027.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/spacex-1-trillion-revenue-2030/2026-06-24-spacex-1-trillion-revenue-2030Wed, 24 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: two days after SpaceX's June 12 IPO, Musk forecast on X that SpaceX 'might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030' (~53x its ~$18.7B in 2025), adding he'd be surprised if it weren't above $1T in 2031.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/economy-10x-bigger-in-10-years/2026-06-21-economy-10x-bigger-in-10-yearsSun, 21 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: at the March 2026 Abundance Summit Musk forecast the global economy growing ~10x in 10 years ('a fairly comfortable prediction' barring WW3); he re-shared the clip June 21.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/starship-fully-reusable/2026-06-18-starship-fully-reusableThu, 18 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTGoalpost moved to 2027: on the June 16 Joe Rogan interview Musk said rapid reusability of the whole Starship stack would come 'next year,' slipping from the end-2026 target.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/recover-starship-ship-intact-2026/2026-06-18-recover-starship-ship-intact-2026Thu, 18 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: Musk told Joe Rogan SpaceX will 'probably recover the ship sometime this year,' a 2026 milestone toward reusability.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/several-starships-to-mars-end-2027/2026-06-18-several-starships-to-mars-end-2027Thu, 18 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: Musk told Joe Rogan the 'default plan' is to launch several uncrewed Starships to Mars in the late-2027 window.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/conversational-grok-in-fsd/2026-06-18-conversational-grok-in-fsdThu, 18 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNew prediction: Musk said conversational Grok in Tesla FSD (natural-language driving commands) will arrive 'in about 3 months or so' (~Sept 2026).https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/recover-starship-ship-intact-2025/2026-06-18-recover-starship-ship-intact-2025Thu, 18 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTCorrected: stated on JRE #2281 (Feb 28 2025), not 2026. 'This year' meant 2025 — no ship was recovered intact in 2025, so this is now resolved MISSED.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/grok-full-movies-end-2026/2026-06-17-grok-full-movies-end-2026Wed, 17 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNEW — Musk (June 17) escalated his AI-movie claim to 'full movies by the end of this year,' replying to xAI's Grok Imagine Video 1.5.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/optimus-von-neumann-probe/2026-06-17-optimus-von-neumann-probeWed, 17 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNEW — Musk (June 17) said a legion of Optimus robots plus solar panels would be the first Von Neumann probe (self-replicating spacecraft); no timeline.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/ai-stockfish-level-coding/2026-06-16-ai-stockfish-level-codingTue, 16 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNEW — Musk (June 16) predicted AI will achieve 'Stockfish-level coding and generalized computer use,' after SpaceX's acquisition of Cursor.https://twoweeks.lol/predictions/5x-more-satellites-than-world-2031/2026-06-15-5x-more-satellites-than-world-2031Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:00:00 GMTNEW prediction tracked — Musk (June 13) predicted Starlink would have ~5× the satellites of the rest of the world within ~5 years.