PendingTerafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
General predictions, scored.
The predictions too big for any one company. Scorecard so far: 0 delivered · 2 missed · 6 still open.
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8 CLAIMS
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Pending
PendingUS output outgrows money supply in ~3 years, then deflation
“In 3 years or less, my guess is goods and services growth will exceed money supply growth in about 3 years.…”
PendingUS double-digit growth in 12-18 months, triple-digit in ~5 years
“Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months. If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth,…”
PendingEconomy 10x bigger in 10 years
“I'd say the economy is 10 times its current size in 10 years... I feel like that's actually a fairly comfor…”
Pending
PendingWorking will be optional in less than 20 years
“My prediction is less than 20 years working will be optional. Working at all will be optional, like a hobby…”
MissedAI smarter than any single human by end of 2025
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.”
MissedClose to zero new US COVID cases by end of April 2020
“Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April”
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