OverdueAI predictions, scored.
AGI next year, Grok 'crushingly good,' supercomputers and terafabs.
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34 CLAIMS
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Overdue
PendingMassive Grok gains in ~3 months from C/C++ stack rewrite
“Truly massive gains will come in ~3 months when the entire training and inference stack is written in C/C++…”
PendingGrok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
PendingGreat AI-generated game released by end of 2026
“The XAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year”
Pending
Pending
PendingA new from-scratch AI model released every month for the rest of 2026
“Completely trained from scratch new models will be released by @SpaceX every month this year.”
PendingxAI open-sources the 0.5T Grok model by end of 2026
“We will open source the 0.5T model towards the end of this year. It should still be quite useful.”
PendingxAI catches up to all AI leaders in 2026
“xAI will catch up this year and then exceed them all by such a long distance in 3 years that you will need …”
PendingGrokipedia far exceeds Wikipedia in 2026
“Grokipedia is growing rapidly. Will far exceed Wikipedia this year.”
PendingGrok Imagine makes a full-length Odyssey movie by end of 2026
“Before this year ends, Grok Imagine will make a full-length movie of The Odyssey that is historically accur…”
PendingTesla AI5 chip into production by ~Q2 2027
“going as fast as possible to get AI5, Tesla AI5 chip design into production and then reaching scale. That'l…”
PendingTerafab: AI5 small-batch 2026, volume 2027, a terawatt of compute/year
“We either build the Terafab, or we don't have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab.”
PendingOrbital satellites become lowest-cost AI compute
“Satellites with localized AI compute... will be the lowest cost way to generate AI bitstreams in <3 years.”
PendingAI exceeds the sum of all human intelligence in ~5 years
“I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in about, in around five years.”
Pending
PendingAI reaches Stockfish-level coding and general computer use
“AI will achieve Stockfish-level coding and generalized computer use”
MissedSecurity-test and open-source all of X Chat
“In the next few months, we will be doing rigorous security tests of 𝕏 Chat and will open source all the code”
Missed
MissedGrok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
MissedAI smarter than any single human by end of 2025
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.”
Cancelled
DeliveredGrok 4.5 released to the public on July 9, 2026
“@SpaceXAI will make Grok 4.5 available to the public tomorrow. It is an Opus-class model, but faster, more …”
Delivered
PartialGrok 4.2 an order of magnitude better than Grok 4
“Grok 4.2 will be about an order of magnitude smarter and faster than Grok 4 when the public beta concludes …”
PartialMajor Grok Code upgrade that one-shots complex tasks
“Major upgrade to Grok Code coming next month. It will one-shot many complex coding tasks.”
PartialGrok 4.20 in ~3 weeks, Grok 5 in a few months
“Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months”
Delivered · LateGrok Imagine V2 video step-change by end of 2025
“Giant improvement with release of Imagine V2 in a few months!”
PartialOpen-source the entire X codebase
“hopefully by next month, we should be able to open source literally all of the @X codebase. Nothing left ou…”
Delivered · LateX algorithm 'purely AI' by November 2025
“The algorithm will be purely AI by November, with significant progress along the way.”
Delivered · LateGrok 3 by end of 2024
“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
DeliveredGrok 2 comes out in August 2024
“Sadly quite true. It takes a lot of work to purge LLMs from the Internet training data. Grok 2, which comes…”
Delivered
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