OverduexAI predictions, scored.
Grok versions, AI movies, and games — the newest book of promises. Scorecard so far: 9 delivered · 2 missed · 15 still open.
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26 CLAIMS
26 shown
Overdue
PendingMassive Grok gains in ~3 months from C/C++ stack rewrite
“Truly massive gains will come in ~3 months when the entire training and inference stack is written in C/C++…”
PendingGrok makes a watchable movie by end of 2026
“Grok will make a movie that is at least watchable before the end of next year and really good movies in 2027.”
PendingGreat AI-generated game released by end of 2026
“The XAI game studio will release a great AI-generated game before the end of next year”
Pending
Pending
PendingA new from-scratch AI model released every month for the rest of 2026
“Completely trained from scratch new models will be released by @SpaceX every month this year.”
PendingxAI open-sources the 0.5T Grok model by end of 2026
“We will open source the 0.5T model towards the end of this year. It should still be quite useful.”
PendingxAI catches up to all AI leaders in 2026
“xAI will catch up this year and then exceed them all by such a long distance in 3 years that you will need …”
PendingGrokipedia far exceeds Wikipedia in 2026
“Grokipedia is growing rapidly. Will far exceed Wikipedia this year.”
PendingGrok Imagine makes a full-length Odyssey movie by end of 2026
“Before this year ends, Grok Imagine will make a full-length movie of The Odyssey that is historically accur…”
PendingAI exceeds intelligence of all humans combined by 2030
“I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”
PendingAI exceeds the sum of all human intelligence in ~5 years
“I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in about, in around five years.”
Pending
PendingAI reaches Stockfish-level coding and general computer use
“AI will achieve Stockfish-level coding and generalized computer use”
Missed
MissedGrok 5 released before end of 2025
“Grok 5 will be out before the end of this year and it will be crushingly good.”
goalposts: 2025 → 2026 · moved 1×
DeliveredGrok 4.5 released to the public on July 9, 2026
“@SpaceXAI will make Grok 4.5 available to the public tomorrow. It is an Opus-class model, but faster, more …”
Delivered
PartialGrok 4.2 an order of magnitude better than Grok 4
“Grok 4.2 will be about an order of magnitude smarter and faster than Grok 4 when the public beta concludes …”
PartialMajor Grok Code upgrade that one-shots complex tasks
“Major upgrade to Grok Code coming next month. It will one-shot many complex coding tasks.”
PartialGrok 4.20 in ~3 weeks, Grok 5 in a few months
“Grok 4.20 is coming in ~3 weeks and then Grok 5 in a few months”
Delivered · LateGrok Imagine V2 video step-change by end of 2025
“Giant improvement with release of Imagine V2 in a few months!”
Delivered · LateGrok 3 by end of 2024
“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
DeliveredGrok 2 comes out in August 2024
“Sadly quite true. It takes a lot of work to purge LLMs from the Internet training data. Grok 2, which comes…”
Delivered/// The Daily Verdict
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